Private-share pricing depends on weighing incomplete signals, not on one headline number. A venture-backed enterprise software company raises its Series D at a $2.4 billion post-money valuation. Eighteen months later, an employee with 45,000 vested common shares wants to sell. That round figure answers none of the key questions: it reflects preferred share economics, market conditions from 18 months ago, and investor return requirements unrelated to common share liquidation value. What buyers will pay today is a separate question requiring several categories of incomplete, time-lagged signals. Earlyasset was built to address that problem.
Six signal categories the model reads
The secondary market for private-company shares is not devoid of information. Instead, its information is scarce, fragmented, and indirect. A model trained on the link between observable signals and eventual secondary clearing prices can weight available evidence in ways a single-methodology analyst cannot reproduce at scale. Here are the signal categories and how each helps estimate the price range.
Secondary transaction data
Completed secondary trades are the most direct evidence available. When shares in a specific company changed hands at a known price within the past six to twelve months, that trade is the model's strongest individual signal. Access is the constraint: these transactions are private, need not be reported to a public registry, and often fall under confidentiality agreements. For many companies, usable secondary transaction data is sparse or entirely absent, so the model cannot depend on it alone.
Funding round multiples
Every announced funding round indicates a total company valuation and a per-share preferred price. Commercial data providers and public announcements make this information broadly available. The key limitation is that funding round data describes preferred share economics, not common share economics. Preferred shareholders have liquidation preferences, conversion rights, and anti-dilution protections, giving them different economic exposure from common shareholders in an exit. Using the preferred round price as a direct common share reference requires subtracting the liquidation preference discount and applying an illiquidity adjustment.
The model does not treat round valuation numbers as direct proxies. It applies a liquidation preference model to the known cap table structure, derives an implied common equity value, and weights that result with other signals.
Revenue benchmarks and public market comparables
Private company financial data is not publicly available, though analyst coverage, customer discovery research, and industry databases may show approximate revenue ranges. More importantly, public-company revenue multiples provide context for private-sector value. If a company's vertical trades at 6 to 9x forward revenue in public markets, that establishes a reference ceiling for late-stage private valuations before private market discounts are applied.
Public comparable multiples are weaker for earlier-stage companies and stronger for late-stage companies effectively pricing toward a public market landing point. The model gives this category more weight as company stage advances.
Exit comparables
Exit comparable analysis reviews actual cleared acquisition and IPO outcomes for companies in comparable sectors, stages, and size ranges. Unlike ongoing trading multiples, it examines what acquirers and public market investors actually paid at exit. A historical exit-multiple distribution weighted for recency and comparability feeds the probability-weighted expected value calculation behind the price range.
Option pricing trends
When employees have recently exercised stock options, or when options have been disclosed through company secondary programs, their strike prices provide another anchor. More broadly, implied volatility from comparable public company options helps indicate the dispersion of likely outcomes. This contributes secondarily to the confidence tier calculation rather than serving as a primary pricing input, while still adding useful information about uncertainty.
Tender offer and secondary platform bid-ask data
Stated prices in company shareholder tender offers and public indications of interest from secondary brokers are directly informative. A board-approved tender offer price represents the board's view of fair common share value at that moment. Broker indications show current buyer appetite. Both inform the estimated secondary clearing price.
How weighting changes by stage and data quality
The model does not use the same weights for every company. With limited secondary transaction history, earlier-stage companies receive more weight from comparable-based approaches and revenue benchmarks. For late-stage companies with active secondary markets and recent data, transaction-based signals dominate. Agreement among categories produces a narrower price range and higher confidence tier. Divergence widens the range and lowers confidence.
A late-stage company with several completed secondary transactions in the prior year, a clear revenue profile, and comparable public peers can produce a tight range at high confidence. An earlier-stage company with no reported secondary transactions, undisclosed financials, and limited comparables can produce a wide range at low confidence. Both estimates are useful, but they require different interpretations.
What the model cannot do
Earlyasset's pricing model cannot access material non-public information. If a company's board is discussing an acquisition, a significant customer relationship is at risk, or a key executive departure is imminent, the model cannot use that information unless it already appears in observable secondary market signals. Our estimates rely only on observable market data.
We are not saying these estimates replace the judgment of an experienced secondary market professional with company-specific knowledge. We are saying the model offers a systematic, consistently derived reference point that is much better than the alternative many shareholders use: the headline preferred round valuation, which answers a different question.
Important: AI-derived price ranges are informational tools only and are not investment advice or formal appraisals. Private market investments carry significant risks, including illiquidity and potential loss of capital. Consult qualified financial and legal advisors before making transaction decisions.